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Where will we be in a year?

Penny Pryor

This time last year where did you expect we would be sitting at the end of the year in terms of economic growth, inflation and the currency?

The numbers for the fourth quarter are not yet in – GDP won’t be released until March 6, 2013 – but to give you a better idea of where things might be this time next year, here are the results of Bloomberg’s survey of 16 analysts (for GDP, CPI and unemployment) and 44 analysts for the currency.

These are the median values but there are plenty of variations. For example the lowest forecast for GDP in quarter four of this year is 1.7 per cent and the highest is 3.4 per cent; for the AUD the lowest is 0.83 and the highest is 1.02 to the USD.

If you want to make a game of it, make your own predictions for next year and then compare them to the economists forecast as the data is released.

Median forecastQ1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2013AUDUSD1.041.031.041.03.98 (2014)
AUDUSD 1.04 1.03 1.04 1.03 .98 (2014)
GDP (YoY%) 2.40 2.40 2.65 2.85 2.90
CPI (YoY%) 3.10 3.20 2.60 2.55 2.50
Unemployment (%) 5.70 5.70 5.75 5.65 5.75

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Market Summary

Price % Chg
ALQ ALS $ 7.950 + 6.00%
MGX MT GIBSON $ 0.715 + 5.15%
AGO ATLAS IRON $ 0.625 + 5.04%
CAB CABCHARGE $ 4.660 + 4.72%
LYC LYNAS $ 0.205 - 4.65%
QBE QBE INSUR. $ 11.040 + 4.45%
TME TRADE ME $ 3.060 - 4.08%
MML MEDUSA $ 1.695 - 3.97%
MSB MESOBLAST $ 4.260 + 3.90%
SVW SEVEN GRP $ 7.870 + 3.28%

Commodities

Price Change % Chg
BRENT SPOT (USD/BBL) 106.920 0.000 0.00%
LIGHT CRUDE SEP4 (USD/BBL) 101.380 + 0.410 + 0.41%
NAT GAS SEP14 (USD/MMBTU) 3.821 - 0.003 - 0.08%
Bid Ask Bid Chg Bid % Chg
GOLD (USD/OZ) 1297.40 1298.20 - 0.70 - 0.05%
SILVER (USD/OZ) 20.51 20.58 - 0.01 - 0.05%
PLATINUM (USD/OZ) 1477.80 1482.30 + 5.30 + 0.36%
PALLADIUM (USD/OZ) 877.75 883.75 + 2.55 + 0.29%

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Currencies

AUD USD EUR JPY GBP
AUD AUD 0.9365 0.6988 95.74 0.553
USD 1.0675 USD 0.7462 102.23 0.5905
EUR 1.4304 1.34 EUR 136.99 0.7913
JPY 0.0104 0.0098 0.0073 JPY 0.0058
GBP 1.8074 1.6932 1.2635 173.1 GBP

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