advertising

Where will we be in a year?

Penny Pryor

This time last year where did you expect we would be sitting at the end of the year in terms of economic growth, inflation and the currency?

The numbers for the fourth quarter are not yet in – GDP won’t be released until March 6, 2013 – but to give you a better idea of where things might be this time next year, here are the results of Bloomberg’s survey of 16 analysts (for GDP, CPI and unemployment) and 44 analysts for the currency.

These are the median values but there are plenty of variations. For example the lowest forecast for GDP in quarter four of this year is 1.7 per cent and the highest is 3.4 per cent; for the AUD the lowest is 0.83 and the highest is 1.02 to the USD.

If you want to make a game of it, make your own predictions for next year and then compare them to the economists forecast as the data is released.

Median forecastQ1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2013AUDUSD1.041.031.041.03.98 (2014)
AUDUSD 1.04 1.03 1.04 1.03 .98 (2014)
GDP (YoY%) 2.40 2.40 2.65 2.85 2.90
CPI (YoY%) 3.10 3.20 2.60 2.55 2.50
Unemployment (%) 5.70 5.70 5.75 5.65 5.75

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter

You can follow Smart Investor on Twitter: https://twitter.com/#!/smartinvestr (or @smartinvestr) and on Facebook at facebook.com/afrsmartinvestor

Comments

Market Summary

Price % Chg
NUF NUFARM $ 4.460 + 10.67%
WSA WEST AREAS $ 4.400 - 5.98%
KMD KATHMANDU $ 2.700 - 5.92%
TPM TPGTELECOM $ 6.890 + 4.39%
AGO ATLAS IRON $ 0.507 - 4.34%
CAB CABCHARGE $ 5.660 + 3.28%
PBG PACBRANDS $ 0.490 + 3.16%
TEN TEN NET $ 0.247 - 3.14%
MTS METCASHLTD $ 2.790 + 2.95%
NVT NAVITAS $ 5.140 + 2.80%

Commodities

Price Change % Chg
BRENT SPOT (USD/BBL) 95.110 0.000 0.00%
LIGHT CRUDE NOV4 (USD/BBL) 91.170 + 0.300 + 0.33%
NAT GAS OCT14 (USD/MMBTU) 3.841 - 0.009 - 0.23%
Bid Ask Bid Chg Bid % Chg
GOLD (USD/OZ) 1218.36 1218.89 + 3.67 + 0.30%
SILVER (USD/OZ) 17.78 17.82 + 0.08 + 0.45%
PLATINUM (USD/OZ) 1326.25 1336.25 + 7.55 + 0.57%
PALLADIUM (USD/OZ) 802.22 807.77 + 4.72 + 0.59%

Markets Data »

Currencies

AUD USD EUR JPY GBP
AUD AUD 0.8892 0.6918 96.69 0.5427
USD 1.1238 USD 0.778 108.73 0.6105
EUR 1.4445 1.2852 EUR 139.74 0.7845
JPY 0.0103 0.0092 0.0072 JPY 0.0056
GBP 1.8411 1.638 1.2743 178.09 GBP

Markets Data »

Stock price lookup

My Watchlists

You need to be logged in to see your watchlists.

My Portfolios

You need to be logged in to see your portfolios.